Sunday, April 12, 2009

A Plausible Victory

Glancing at the recent YouGov poll the other day, it struck me why it was so important for Gordon Brown. It tells him that Labour is now within feasible striking distance of the Tories if he calls a General Election. 

As Malc in the Burgh explains, the poll gives the Tories a 7-point lead which, as the UK Polling Report’s Swing Calculator shows, would put them 14 seats short of a majority in a hung parliament, but able to form a government with the LibDems.

The key is that a 1% further voter swing from the Tories to Labour would change things dramatically. This would give Labour the chance of forming a government in a hung parliament – in a coalition with, you guessed it, the LibDems.

Where I disagree with Malc is that I don’t think any further swing is required. Thanks to Britain’s easily corruptible postal voting system – a matter of public record – victory for Brown only has to be within plausible distance. If Labour's by-election rigging machine - deployed with such devastating effectiveness at Birmingham, Blackburn and Glenrothes - is rolled out across  the country in a General Election, the Tories will be swept away in a deluge of postal votes for Labour. 

As long as the victory is believable, as it is now with this poll - regardless of what other polls may say - it will be meekly accepted by the British electorate. Their passivity will overrule their incredulity and the result will be accepted. 

And Gordon Brown will be in Downing Street for five more years. Say hello to a British police state, ID cards, Trident, a spate of opposition MP arrests, and even more ruthless control of public protest.

That’s why I think Malc is only partly right: there may well be an election around the corner, but Labour don’t have to win it.

They only have to appear to.


BBC, April 4, 2005: Judge upholds vote-rigging claims
TimesOnline, April 11, 2005: Labour to halt postal vote fraud but only after election
TimesOnline, April 15, 2005: Fraud fear as postal voting soars 500% in marginals
The Spectator, April 15, 2005: Cover Story: Democracy in Danger 


scunnert said...

" Labour don’t have to win it." No - they only have to steal it and, as you say, they have form in this department.

OutLander said...

Indeed, Scunnert.

This should be the number one issue - it's more important that police violence, expenses, Europe, Brown's spin monkeys sending emails, anything.

Because we can scream about the other issues till we're blue in the face, but this is how Brown will get back in.

Check out Subrosa's post on electoral fraud too.

(Funny, I thought I'd replied to you, but my comment is gone. The spooks are catching up with me.)

Oldrightie said...

A scary matter which needs shouting from the roof tops to minimise Labour's deviousness and fraud. You'll have them back in Scotland this way, too, remember.

OutLander said...

Greetings Oldrightie,

Spot on.

A major factor in Brown's gamble on when to push the election button will be whether his minions are ready to deliver on national postal vote rigging. They've pulled it off in Birmingham, Blackburn, Leeds and Glenrothes, but the problem now is that the word is out. Brown knows the longer he leaves the decision, the greater the clamour will be to fix postal voting fraud.

A big factor is the police. They know what is happening, and a lot depends on how they play it.

People are acting as if the revelation of MPs expenses and toxic spin will tip the balance against Labour, but unless this problem is fixed, it won't matter.